Harr's view: The political disruption of the COVID-19 crisis
On our webinar on Wednesday, former PM of Sweden Carl Bildt argued the crisis will be more disruptive economically and politically than most people anticipate. I agree with him.
For some time, I have argued that there is a 40% risk of a crisis that lasts substantially longer than just H1 20. An escalation of geopolitical conflicts, such as US-China tensions, may be a trigger for a more prolonged crisis.
Investors agree with our view that the Eurozone is caught in an unstable equilibrium, where there is a political risk that the ECB suddenly hesitates due to, for example, disagreement in the Governing Council, a constitutional court ruling in one of its member states against its current policy or higher inflation.
I am worried about countries in Southern Europe which have been hit hard by the healthcare crisis, and where travel and tourism constitute a significant part of their economies. This could drive new waves of populism and anti-globalisation trends.