The bottom line: further improvement in Europe, while new infections continue to rise in the US but broadly in line with expectations. In the past days Brazil and India have seen a worrying increase.
- The number of new infections outside China rose to a new high of 78,204 from 72,756 pushing up the total number of infected above 900,000.
- The US was behind 34% of the increase and Europe 47%. The US surpassed 200,000 infections and the number of new cases increased to 26,637 from 24,325. The growth rate is still trending lower, though, and now stands at 14%. The US saw a big jump in new deaths to 1,220 up from 724 lifting the total number of deaths to 5,110. It pushed up the death rate from 2.1% to 2.4%. New York saw a rise in new hospitalisations after a few days of stabilisation.
- The US is currently on track for a total number of infections around 500,000. With a death rate that might rise to 5%, this would lead to 25,000 total deaths. A scenario of 100,000 deaths as painted by US health authorities on Tuesday would imply a scenario for infections per capita about two times worse than Italy and a death rate of around 7%. It seems unlikely based on experience from other countries where social distancing goes up as fears rise.
- In Italy, the number of new infections continues to trend lower and hospitalisations are now the lowest in three weeks. Total infections now stand at 110,000 and we look for a peak around 120-140,000. A scenario with a ‘fat tail’ where new cases drop more slowly could lead to 150,000.
- Germany continues to see a downward trend in new infections and new deaths have moved sideways around 100 for six days now adding evidence that the peak is behind us.
- France saw a drop in the number of new cases below 5,000 again after the big jump yesterday. The trend is still up but at a slower growth rate of 13%. The number of coronavirus patients in ICU now exceeds the number of ICU beds in France by 1,000 according to Politico.
- In Spain new cases move broadly sideways. Officials in Spain have said the country is at a peak now - possibly due to lower hospitalisations.
- Infections jumped higher in the UK to 4,324 from 3,009. UK lags a bit in the virus cycle compared to other European countries.
- In Scandi, Denmark, Norway and Finland have seen clear improvement. Picture is a bit more mixed in Sweden where deaths have risen sharply but growth rate in deaths is coming down.