COVID-19 update: Lower growth in infections in Europe and US, first two-day rise in equity markets in this market rout
The bottom line: Italy still looks like it has peaked. We continue to see lower growth in infections in the rest of Europe and the US. New cases stabilised in Brazil and India. Iran seems to have a second outbreak, highlighting the need to keep restrictions in place for now.
The number of new cases outside China rose to a new high of 48,453 from 41,130. The growth rate in infections is down to 11%, though. Europe is behind 60% of new cases and the US 30%.
We lifted our model scenarios slightly, as we are now on a 1 million peak level path for total infections (from 900,000 yesterday).
Italy saw a rise in new infections of 5,210, broadly unchanged from yesterday. It is still below the peak so far reached on 22 March at 6,557. The growth rate is down to 7.5% and we believe Italy has passed the peak in terms of new cases. The number of new deaths fell to 683 from 743 yesterday. New deaths also seem to have peaked.
Germany and France continue to see lower growth rates, down to 13% in both countries (from 25-30% 10 days ago). It points to a peak in new cases by early next week in both countries.
Spain now looks to be on steeper path than Italy, but daily growth in infections has also fallen here to around 20%. Spain extended its lockdown by two weeks yesterday to 11 April.
Scandi countries continue to see a rise in infections but at a modest growth rate below 10%. Deaths jumped higher yesterday in Sweden to 62 from 36.
The US saw a new high in new cases at 13,554 from 8,722. The increase in new cases has levelled off a bit though, and the daily growth rate is down to 22% now (2-day average) from 35-40% a week ago. New York governor yesterday said the rate of hospitalisations had slowed down. New York has 48% of all US cases.
Iran seems to have a second wave of outbreak. The number of new cases rose to 2,206 yesterday from 1,762, a new high. It highlights that some restrictions will have to be in place even after the virus is under control. Iran has not imposed a lockdown.
South Korea continues to see around 100 new cases per day (daily growth around 1%). Hong Kong and Singapore have seen a rise in new cases, mainly due to imported cases. They are quick to track, test and isolate, though.
The virus is likely to become seasonal and come back in a second wave, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, US head of National Health Institute (CNBC).
US Senate passed the USD2trn fiscal stimulus unanimously. It now goes to the House for vote (Reuters).