COVID-19 update: Small setback as the US and German cases jump higher
The bottom line: US and Germany saw a jump higher yesterday. New cases in Italy also up but still below the peak. Illustrates the risk that the decline in new cases could drag out even after the peak. Sweden saw big jump in deaths yesterday. We still believe in a peak in new infections Germany and France early next week and in the US at the end of next week as lockdowns feed through to the data.
The number of new cases outside China jumped higher yesterday to 60,790 from 48,453. It was a new high and brought the total above half a million infections. We have lifted our model scenarios and it now looks very likely we will peak above one million, especially if the 'right tail' of new infections is fatter than the model suggests.
Italy registered 6,203 new infections yesterday, up from 5,210. It is still below the peak on 22 March but the increase indicates that the 'third phase' of levelling off in new cases will drag out longer than in South Korea and China. The total number of infections in Italy is now 80,589. New deaths continue to hover around 700, as it has for six days now.
Germany saw a jump in new cases to 6,615, a new high. The declining trend in the growth rate has stalled a bit around 15%, down from the 30-40% level in the early outbreak phase. France also saw a rise in new cases but not as much as in Germany. Spain has seen a decline in the growth rate to 17% from 25% 10 days ago but too early for a peak.
The US had a setback yesterday with a rise in the number of new cases to 17,173bringing the total to 85,594, now the highest in the world. The daily growth rate increased to 25% from 22% the day before, breaking the declining trend. The US still tracks the path of Italy quite closely with a lag of about two weeks.
The epicentre in the US is New York (45% of all cases), which is facing pressure on hospitals now. Close to half of US states have now taken lockdown measures.
In Scandi, Sweden continues to see a big rise in deaths to 77 yesterday from 42. The number of new cases increased in all countries except Finland but the daily growth rate is fairly low around 10%. There is uncertainty about changes in testing strategy, but the trend in hospitalisations looks similar to the one in infections.
South Korea saw a rise in new cases of 91, a daily growth of 1%. Iran registered another increase in new cases in what looks very much like a second-wave outbreak.
In India the number of new cases was unchanged around 500. So far it does not look like an exponential outbreak but it is too early to call. Brazil saw a rise in new cases above 500 after declining to 200 in previous days. Turkey has seen a big increase over the past week, which looks like an exponential spread.
S&P500 rose 6.2% yesterday, the third day with gains. The S&P future is down 1.9% overnight.